Freight transportation forecasting in the region in conditions of transport infrastructure shortage
https://doi.org/10.46973/0201-727X_2025_1_69
Abstract
This study is a continuation of the previous works of the authors and is aimed at assessing the region's needs for the development of transport infrastructure and forecasting the volume of traffic in conditions of its shortage.
A graphical-analytical model of the interaction between the transport infrastructure and the economic sectors of the region is presented and the basic principles of forecasting freight transportation in the region and assessing infrastructure shortages are described. The results of forecasting the value of transport demand in a particular region are presented and the moment of occurrence of a shortage of transport infrastructure is determined. A methodology for predicting the loading of a region with priority industry access to transport infrastructure in conditions of its scarcity is developed. The magnitude of economic losses due to the shortage of transport infrastructure in the region is determined with different options for prioritizing industries.
About the Authors
I. S. Vyskrebentsev
Ural State University of Railway Transport (USURT)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Vyskrebentsev Ivan Sergeevich, Postgraduate Student
M. B. Petrov
Ural State University of Railway Transport (USURT); Ural Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Petrov Mikhail Borisovich, Chair “Transport Economics”, Doctor of Engineering Sciences, Professor, Head of the Center for Development and Distribution of Productive Forces
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Review
For citations:
Vyskrebentsev I.S., Petrov M.B. Freight transportation forecasting in the region in conditions of transport infrastructure shortage. Vestnik Rostovskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta Putej Soobshcheniya. 2025;(1):69-76. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46973/0201-727X_2025_1_69
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