Risk assessment in the operation of low-intensity railway lines
https://doi.org/10.46973/0201-727X_2024_4_161
Abstract
Risk assessment of low-intensity railway lines operation allows identifying and significantly reducing potential difficulties in line operation. The article proposes a risk assessment tool for measures to improve the efficiency of low-intensity lines operation, which includes a mechanism for monitoring line performance indicators. The proposed mechanism for monitoring indicators is based on a set of technical, technological and economic indicators, which are random variables with specified average values and a covariance matrix that takes into account correlations between indicators and seasonal unevenness. A set of options for operating low-intensity railway lines (LIL) has been developed, taking into account changes in indicators for selecting effective directions under specified initial conditions. The article presents the results of modeling the assessment of the probability of alternative options using the Monte Carlo method for the probabilistic distribution of risks and their combined impact on indicators. A quantitative and qualitative assessment of possible options for LIL operation is given when its financial result changes.
About the Authors
K. E. Kovalev
Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University (PGUPS)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Kovalev Konstantin Evgenievich, Chair «Logistics and Commercial Work», Candidate of Engineering Sciences, Associate Professor
A. V. Novichikhin
Emperor Alexander I St. Petersburg State Transport University (PGUPS)
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Novichikhin Aleksey Viktorovich, Chair «Logistics and Commercial Work», Doctor of Engineering Sciences, Associate Professor, Head of Chair
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For citations:
Kovalev K.E., Novichikhin A.V. Risk assessment in the operation of low-intensity railway lines. Vestnik Rostovskogo Gosudarstvennogo Universiteta Putej Soobshcheniya. 2024;(4):161-172. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.46973/0201-727X_2024_4_161
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